Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, its political landscape has largely been defined by a two-party system. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) emerged as the dominant force, with President Olusegun Obasanjo becoming the country’s first democratically elected president under the PDP platform. At the time, two other major parties, the All Peoples Party (APP) and the Alliance for Democracy (AD), offered some balance in the system.
For over 16 years, PDP held control at the federal level until the emergence of the All Progressives Congress (APC), a coalition of opposition parties including the AD’s remnants. APC broke PDP’s dominance in 2015 when Muhammadu Buhari defeated Goodluck Jonathan, and the party has remained in power since then.
PDP’s Decline
Over the last decade, the PDP has faced internal turmoil, defections, and declining influence. Once a formidable party with widespread national presence, it now controls fewer than 12 out of Nigeria’s 36 states. Its poor performance in recent elections at the federal and state levels raises concern over its viability as a serious opposition force.
The 2023 general elections further exposed PDP’s weakening grip, as the party struggled to unify ahead of the polls and failed to mount a strong challenge to APC’s candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Tinubu’s Strategy and the ‘Invasion’ of PDP
Since assuming office, President Tinubu has been accused of systematically weakening the opposition. Several prominent PDP figures have either defected to APC or accepted political appointments from Tinubu’s government, blurring party lines and raising suspicions of a calculated plan to dismantle the opposition.
Notable defections include former Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, who now serves as the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) under Tinubu’s cabinet. Other PDP members have also crossed over or pledged loyalty to the president, further deepening the crisis within the party.
The Wike-Atiku Rift and Its Fallout
A key factor in PDP’s recent troubles is the unresolved fallout between Nyesom Wike and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Wike, who led the G5 governors, pushed for the zoning of the PDP presidential ticket to the South following eight years of northern leadership under Buhari. However, Atiku secured the ticket with the help of northern allies like Aminu Tambuwal.
Feeling betrayed, Wike refused to support the PDP presidential campaign and instead, by his own admission, worked against Atiku, indirectly boosting Tinubu’s chances. President Tinubu has since capitalized on the internal division, rewarding Wike and his allies, while deepening the rift within PDP.
Consolidation of Power: A Warning Sign?
Since his swearing-in, President Tinubu has maintained tight control over the executive and legislative branches. His party dominates both the Senate (Red Chamber) and House of Representatives (Green Chamber). More recently, political observers raised eyebrows when the federal government suspended a sitting governor in Rivers State, further suggesting a creeping centralization of power.
This growing dominance raises fears that Nigeria may be slowly drifting toward a de facto one-party system, a scenario many fear could undermine democratic checks and balances.
Could Tinubu Be Eyeing a Third Term?
Though the constitution limits the president to two terms, some Nigerians are beginning to speculate about Tinubu’s long-term intentions. His moves to sideline the opposition, consolidate allies across parties, and exert influence over independent institutions have led to whispers about a possible attempt to extend his stay in power beyond the constitutionally allowed period.
A Dangerous Trend?
While it is premature to conclude that Nigeria is officially becoming a one-party state, the trend is worrying. A healthy democracy thrives on strong opposition, diverse political voices, and institutional independence. If current patterns continue unchecked, Nigeria risks sliding into authoritarianism, not necessarily through military force, but via political engineering and strategic manipulation.
For now, the biggest question remains: Can the PDP or any other opposition party regroup, restructure, and reclaim relevance — or is Nigeria indeed on the road to becoming a one-party nation?
